risk of ruin
I’m recording an album for The Dead Languages until September 2011. Then I’ll be applying for a job in retail or being staked for live cash games in Las Vegas.
My goal is to play 2-5 or 5-10 No Limit Hold ‘Em, 30 hours a week in Las Vegas casinos.
So this is an outline of who I am and what my plan is – I’m putting this here to direct potential stakers in the next couple months. Thanks for checking it out. › Continue reading
The scariest sentence in the book, “The Mathematics of Poker” by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman states:
“The risk of ruin of a bankroll that is maintained at a particular level and from which all the profit above that level is taken out of the bankroll is 1, or a 100% chance.”
This means that if I make 6PTBB/100 and I withdraw my profits and spend them, I will eventually hit a swing that will decimate my starting bankroll no matter how large it is.
This is because bankrolls rely on a true constant win rate in their calculation. In order to keep a 1% risk of ruin with Exploitative Play and a 500 PTBB bankroll, I need to maintain the win rate of 6 PTBB. Withdrawing money from my win rate will not maintain the win rate and will increase my risk of ruin.
I don’t know how, but somewhere along the way I gave my former roommate Danny the impression that I was a loose player in live cash games. Maybe it was when I put 2 players all-in and then won the pot with ten high, stood up in the casino and said, “Ten high is very good.” Or maybe it was when I called an all-in shove of twice the pot on the turn with ace high and insta-flipped my hand up, believing it was good. Or maybe it was when I called a half-pot river bet in a 100 big blind pot with jack high, again believing it was good. The hands I showed down respectively were T8o, A7o, and J4s – each one I had raised preflop. And I guess that looks pretty loose.
› Continue reading
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